Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:06:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe07c…551d sports 731 markets active 1h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,533 (-13%) realized −$1,533 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%307W / 410L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days−$51
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$1,472
other 14% −$47
politics 2% +$100
crypto 1% −$95
weather 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +7.7% -2.5% 43% 43% +41.1%
≤30d 134 +11.5% +0.9% 57% 54% -1.4%
≤90d 148 +10.5% -0.0% 55% 52% -4.0%
all 717 -4.4% -13.5% 43% 40% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 40% -21.1%
10% -21.8% 38% -28.6%
15% -29.4% 34% -35.5%
20% -36.3% 30% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$1,533
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses307 / 410
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions14
Markets (closed)717 / 731
History coverage477d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 717 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Nuno Borges 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Flavio Cobolli 45¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Parks Tessa Brockmann 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Max Schoenhaus 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Petra Marcinko 76¢ 73¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Brazil 51¢ 45¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 57¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $3 +$11 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Tyler: Andres Martin vs Blake Ellis Jun 03 $4 −$4 -98%
Will DR Congo vs. Denmark end in a draw? Jun 03 $3 +$1 +47%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $173 −$51 -30%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $1 $0 +32%
Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Michele Ribecai Jun 01 $1 $0 +39%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Austria vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $1 +$1 +57%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Guo/Mladenovic vs Mertens/Zhang Jun 01 $1 +$2 +158%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Dabrowski/Stefani vs Eikeri/Gleason Jun 01 $1 $0 +29%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $1 +$1 +73%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain Jun 01 $1 +$1 +73%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Birmingham: Elvina Kalieva vs Talia Gibson Jun 01 $2 −$2 -99%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Kent Jun 01 $1 +$2 +158%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Derbyshire Jun 01 $1 +$1 +93%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +119%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $1 +$1 +114%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 01 $1 +$1 +97%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Durham Jun 01 $1 $0 +23%
T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Northamptonshire Jun 01 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1 +$2 +188%
Pallacanestro Brescia vs. Olimpia Milano May 31 $2 +$2 +105%
ITF Kayseri: Duru Soke vs Deniz Dilek May 31 $1 $0 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $1 $0 +26%
Will Real Zaragoza vs. Málaga CF end in a draw? May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Centurion: Giles Hussey vs Edward Winter May 31 $1 +$1 +105%
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-05-29? May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional end in a draw? May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
T20 Blast: Middlesex vs Hampshire May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Japan vs. Iceland end in a draw? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mongolia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10 +$9 +90%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 31 $10 +$15 +152%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun May 31 $20 −$19 -93%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers May 30 $10 −$7 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 45¢ $1 49m
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 28¢ $1 49m
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Max Schoenhaus 19¢ $1 49m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito BUY Petra Marcinko 76¢ $1 50m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa BUY Tessa Brockmann 81¢ $1 50m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Brazil 51¢ $1 51m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 57¢ $1 51m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 57m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 58m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 59m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 46¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $1 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $1 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $1 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $1 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $1 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $1 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $1 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $1 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $1 6h
Tyler: Andres Martin vs Blake Ellis BUY Blake Ellis 16¢ $4 11d
Will DR Congo vs. Denmark end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 11d
Will DR Congo vs. Denmark end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 11d
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? SELL Yes $0 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.56 · official $20.56 (match) · 1605 history records