Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:17:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E0 0xe07d…b3f2 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$1,577 (-24%) realized −$1,574 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$951per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$491now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$1,319
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)+14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +26.4% +14.4% 83% 83% -29.0%
≤30d 6 +26.4% +14.4% 83% 83% -29.0%
≤90d 6 +26.4% +14.4% 83% 83% -29.0%
all 6 +26.4% +14.4% 83% 83% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.4% 83% -29.0%
10% +3.4% 83% -35.8%
15% -6.6% 67% -42.0%
20% -15.7% 50% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$327 vs −$2,950 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$491
Realized−$1,574
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage3d
Avg bet$951
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $493 $491 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $500 +$329 +66%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $500 +$164 +33%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$38 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 +$41 +69%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,000 −$2,950 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,000 +$1,061 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $500 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $664 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $500 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $500 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $100 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $60 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $500 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $2,000 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $500 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $2,000 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $490.66 · official $490.66 (match) · 14 history records