Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:08:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E0 0xe07e…5406 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$374 (-7%) realized −$374 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$378per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$362
world 33% −$1
other 27% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.6% -11.9% 0% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 5 -19.5% -27.2% 20% 20% -12.1%
≤90d 14 -13.6% -21.8% 36% 7% -16.1%
all 14 -13.6% -21.8% 36% 7% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 7% -16.1%
10% -29.3% 0% -24.1%
15% -36.1% 0% -31.4%
20% -42.4% 0% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$77 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$374
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage63d
Avg bet$378
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Yoon out of custody before 2027? Jun 15 $57 −$1 -3%
Spread: Maghreb AS de Fès (-2.5) May 24 $469 +$51 +11%
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? May 24 $502 −$19 -4%
Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-2.5) May 19 $62 −$62 -100%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $48 −$1 -2%
Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5) May 15 $381 −$380 -100%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? May 15 $496 $0 +0%
Spread: Sevilla FC (-2.5) May 15 $483 +$12 +2%
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? May 13 $480 $0 +0%
Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30? May 06 $458 $0 +0%
Spread: Aarhus GF (-2.5) Apr 23 $382 +$8 +2%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? Apr 20 $739 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? Apr 19 $375 +$1 +0%
Spread: SS Lazio (-2.5) Apr 15 $364 +$10 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Yoon out of custody before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 47m
Yoon out of custody before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 47m
Yoon out of custody before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 48m
Yoon out of custody before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 57m
Yoon out of custody before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 57m
Yoon out of custody before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 59m
Yoon out of custody before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 59m
Yoon out of custody before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $29 2h
Yoon out of custody before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $28 2h
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $0 22d
Spread: Maghreb AS de Fès (-2.5) BUY IR Tanger 90¢ $469 23d
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $484 23d
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $502 24d
Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-2.5) BUY Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC $31 26d
Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-2.5) BUY Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC $32 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $24 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $24 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $24 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $24 26d
Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5) BUY Adelaide United FC 95¢ $381 30d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $496 30d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $496 31d
Spread: Sevilla FC (-2.5) BUY Villarreal CF 98¢ $483 32d
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 33d
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $475 33d
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $480 33d
Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $64 39d
Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $98 39d
Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $98 39d
Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $98 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records