Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:43:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E0 0xe07f…1074 other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$74 · open −$71
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate71%12W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$398now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$232
7 days+$277
14 days+$317
30 days+$372
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$246
sports 34% +$55
world 10% −$206
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +39.7% +26.4% 83% 83% +50.9%
≤30d 14 +26.4% +14.4% 86% 64% +20.7%
≤90d 17 +10.0% -0.5% 71% 53% +1.1%
all 17 +10.0% -0.5% 71% 53% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 53% +1.1%
10% -10.0% 41% -8.6%
15% -18.7% 41% -17.4%
20% -26.7% 24% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$60 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$398
Realized+$74
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses12 / 5
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions7
Markets (closed)17 / 24
History coverage48d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $104 $103 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $82 $83 +$1 (+1%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $60 −$40 (-40%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $85 $49 −$36 (-42%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $40 $44 +$3 (+8%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $33 $32 −$2 (-5%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $24 $28 +$3 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $98 +$49 +50%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $87 +$53 +60%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$131 +129%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $68 +$32 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $47 +$24 +52%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $23 $0 +1%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 +$2 +10%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $81 +$7 +8%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $79 +$11 +13%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $58 +$21 +36%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $141 +$31 +22%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $120 +$100 +83%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $417 −$75 -18%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $206 −$206 -100%
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 12 $31 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 11¢ $34 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $105 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 97¢ $97 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $68 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 52¢ $21 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 23h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $83 26h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $27 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $23 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $23 7d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $23 7d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $88 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $88 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $28 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $398.08 · official $398.08 (match) · 239 history records