Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:43:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E0 0xe080…5da9 crypto 1630 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 122d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,803 (+1%) realized +$1,800 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate82%1333W / 291L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,105
sports 0% −$6
other 0% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +43.6% +29.9% 100% 100% +29.9%
≤30d 1 +43.6% +29.9% 100% 100% +29.9%
≤90d 133 -7.4% -16.3% 65% 62% -16.2%
all 1624 +0.4% -9.2% 82% 53% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 53% -8.9%
10% -17.9% 20% -17.7%
15% -25.8% 10% -25.6%
20% -33.1% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$72 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized+$1,800
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses1333 / 291
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1624 / 1630
History coverage123d ⚠
Avg bet$109
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1624 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 60¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 47¢ 46¢ $47 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score No 47¢ 46¢ $47 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 42¢ $46 $42 −$4 (-10%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 9¢ 86¢ $2 $17 +$16 (+858%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison? Yes 18¢ 4¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-76%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison? Yes 37¢ 7¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-82%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison? Yes 25¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? Yes 35¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $70 +$30 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 12 $20 −$9 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 12 $20 −$13 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 12 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 12 $20 −$13 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 11 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 11 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 11 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 11 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 11 $64 +$22 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 11 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 11 $196 +$43 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 11 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 11 $188 −$188 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 11 $14 −$9 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 11 $100 −$81 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 10 $81 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 10 $120 +$43 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 10 $45 +$11 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 10 $120 −$118 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 10 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 10 $103 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 10 $120 +$26 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 10 $120 +$26 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 10 $120 +$26 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 10 $120 +$27 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 10 $120 +$28 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 10 $120 +$30 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 10 $120 +$31 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 10 $120 +$31 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 10 $120 +$41 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 10 $98 −$42 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 09 $120 −$66 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 09 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 09 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 09 $40 −$22 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 09 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 09 $40 −$22 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 09 $40 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 07 $40 −$29 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 07 $40 +$17 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 07 $40 −$17 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 07 $40 −$30 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 07 $40 +$20 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 07 $40 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 07 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 07 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 07 $40 +$9 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $55 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $61 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $48 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 47¢ $48 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 50¢ $51 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $47 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 69¢ $70 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $11 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $20 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $7 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $20 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $25 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $7 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $19 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $20 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $21 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $20 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $21 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $20 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $44 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $25 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $78 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $96 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $100 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $58 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.34 · official $315.34 (match) · 3500 history records