Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:16:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe088…7485 crypto 75 markets active 4h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21 (-7%) realized −$18 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%24W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$38
weather 37% −$6
other 13% +$6
sports 2% +$4
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -11.6% -20.0% 32% 30% -9.9%
≤30d 44 -10.3% -18.8% 36% 34% -11.7%
≤90d 65 -15.7% -23.7% 37% 35% -21.6%
all 65 -15.7% -23.7% 37% 35% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 35% -21.6%
10% -31.0% 31% -29.1%
15% -37.7% 29% -36.0%
20% -43.8% 25% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses24 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)65 / 75
History coverage60d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+13%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Yes 39¢ 46¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+19%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Yes 28¢ 18¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Yes 19¢ 13¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$7 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$5 +193%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$4 +121%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -80%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$7 +165%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $3 +$4 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $14 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -82%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +135%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Apr 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 18 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 81¢ $11 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 37h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 37h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 37h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Belgium vs. BUY 6¢ $1 40h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 41h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 41h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 41h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 41h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 41h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 41h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 42h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 42h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 42h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 42h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 42h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Urugua BUY 6¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY 15¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.36 · official $30.36 (match) · 153 history records