Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:02:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe08f…ef55 other 45 markets active 5d ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$545 (-14%) realized −$601 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%17W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$993now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$116
14 days−$266
30 days−$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$33
world 29% +$3
sports 15% −$225
politics 10% −$376
finance 7% +$49
crypto 2% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -26.2% -33.2% 40% 30% -24.1%
≤30d 36 -2.4% -11.7% 44% 39% -18.3%
≤90d 41 -11.1% -19.5% 41% 37% -29.2%
all 41 -11.1% -19.5% 41% 37% -29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 37% -29.2%
10% -27.2% 32% -36.0%
15% -34.3% 29% -42.2%
20% -40.7% 22% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$55 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$993
Realized−$601
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses17 / 24
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)41 / 45
History coverage59d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 37¢ 42¢ $536 $593 +$57 (+11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 94¢ $342 $357 +$15 (+4%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No 74¢ 69¢ $34 $32 −$2 (-7%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 34¢ 14¢ $25 $11 −$14 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $350 +$6 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Jun 23 $85 +$9 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $79 −$77 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$20 +50%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 22 $42 −$9 -21%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$40 +197%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $21 +$122 +596%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $49 +$35 +71%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $61 +$46 +76%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $39 +$41 +105%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $41 +$40 +97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 18 $61 −$33 -54%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $173 −$173 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$25 +124%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $122 −$6 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$16 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $112 +$166 +148%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 14 $191 +$18 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? Jun 02 $220 +$30 +14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 13 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $164 −$164 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $113 −$113 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 06 $58 +$19 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $179 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $94 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 18¢ $79 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 36¢ $20 5d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $20 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $52 6d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $41 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 32¢ $33 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $40 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 11¢ $5 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $20 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $21 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 37¢ $42 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 14¢ $21 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 8d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $41 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $55 8d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $20 9d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $41 9d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $41 9d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $41 9d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $39 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 10d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 51¢ $95 10d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $48 11d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $41 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $993.33 · official $993.33 (match) · 177 history records