Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:42:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe093…aa0f other 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate48%30W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$4
world 19% −$1
politics 17% −$3
sports 6% $0
finance 6% $0
tech 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 6 -2.7% -12.0% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 7 -3.3% -12.5% 14% 0% -10.4%
all 62 -1.4% -10.7% 48% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 3% -9.5%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses30 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage455d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $45 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $3 −$1 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $42 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $65 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $32 −$2 -7%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 15 $24 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Dec 15 $44 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $10 −$5 -46%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 26 $41 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -68%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 06 $7 −$1 -19%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 05 $71 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $5 $0 +6%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will Chet Holmgren Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 04 $48 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 03 $5 $0 -4%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will another person win the South Korean election? Jun 03 $5 $0 +2%
Will Kim Moon-soo win between 25% and 30% of the vote in the South Kor Jun 02 $6 $0 +1%
Will Hillary Clinton be named in Epstein files? Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross less than $20m opening weekend? Jun 02 $8 $0 +4%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? Jun 02 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 01 $4 $0 -3%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 31 $41 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 31 $2 $0 +7%
Will Esteban Ocon finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 30 $23 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or below on May May 29 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? May 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 21 $15 $0 +1%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $6 $0 +9%
Will the Democratic Alternative '91 win the most seats in the 2025 Sur May 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 19 $27 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 16 $5 $0 -5%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 16 $14 +$2 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $16 40m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $30 40m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 51¢ $45 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $45 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $45 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $22 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $18 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $28 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $41 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $18 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $9 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $46 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $46 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 52¢ $13 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 52¢ $14 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 52¢ $3 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 56¢ $12 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 56¢ $20 30d
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL Yes $4 361d
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL Yes $1 362d
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? SELL Yes 95¢ $41 362d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 210 history records