Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:16:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E0 0xe098…fa25 other 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 605d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+0%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate25%17W / 50L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$6
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$13
politics 12% −$8
other 11% +$42
economics 3% $0
sports 1% +$17
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 19 -1.0% -10.5% 16% 5% -10.8%
≤90d 54 +2.7% -7.1% 26% 19% -8.1%
all 67 +2.1% -7.7% 25% 15% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 15% -9.3%
10% -16.5% 15% -18.0%
15% -24.6% 13% -25.9%
20% -32.0% 12% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×4.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

605d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses17 / 50
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage605d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $81 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $23 $0 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $7 +$6 +83%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $22 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 08 $16 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $29 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $22 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 31 $24 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $22 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $18 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 18 $135 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $140 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $141 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $5 +$6 +129%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 08 $126 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $135 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $132 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $127 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $133 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $136 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $405 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $134 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $254 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $269 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 23 $131 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $129 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 22 $136 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $137 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $127 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $133 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $9 +$6 +72%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $11 +$9 +76%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $14 +$6 +46%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $8 +$2 +31%
Blackhawks vs. Oilers Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Pistons vs. Timberwolves Apr 02 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $45 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $16 19h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $16 21h
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $19 41h
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $19 42h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 2d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 2d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $81 3d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 8d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 8d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $7 8d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $16 9d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $16 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $12 9d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 12d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $21 13d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 14d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $22 14d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $22 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $22 15d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 16d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 16d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $24 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.34 · official $25.34 (match) · 278 history records