Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:08:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe09b…df75 other 232 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 221L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$20
14 days−$28
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$38
sports 23% −$19
politics 8% −$7
culture 7% −$7
economics 7% −$6
crypto 5% −$3
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 79 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 231 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)231 / 232
History coverage132d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $224 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $168 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $560 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $175 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $239 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $701 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $310 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $61 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $308 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $175 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $601 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $276 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $171 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $239 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $298 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 18 $269 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $248 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $82 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $369 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $215 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $185 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $456 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $397 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $592 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $194 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $289 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $142 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $702 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $260 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $426 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $410 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $186 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $82 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 10 $410 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $515 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $45 1h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $45 2h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $46 4h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 6h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $46 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 10h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 14h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 15h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 18h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 19h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $46 21h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $46 22h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $46 24h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $46 26h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 27h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 29h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 33h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 34h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 37h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 38h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $46 39h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 41h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $46 42h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $47 44h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $47 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.39 · official $45.39 (match) · 1388 history records