Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:25:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe09b…cfbc crypto 419 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,044 (-13%) realized −$4,044 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%145W / 274L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$526
7 days+$526
14 days−$1,631
30 days−$10,748
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4,402
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +131.5% +109.4% 59% 59% +34.0%
≤30d 340 -32.6% -39.0% 22% 21% -48.5%
≤90d 368 -19.8% -27.4% 26% 26% -41.2%
all 419 +0.0% -9.5% 35% 34% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 34% -22.7%
10% -18.2% 34% -30.1%
15% -26.1% 32% -36.8%
20% -33.3% 31% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$71 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,044
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses145 / 274
Open positions0
Markets (closed)419 / 419
History coverage98d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 419 Trades
no open positions (124 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $167 −$9 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $43 +$136 +321%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $221 +$200 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $41 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $68 +$69 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $63 +$92 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $83 +$72 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $80 +$69 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$57 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $67 −$63 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $55 −$52 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$46 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$54 +505%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $202 −$189 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $253 −$200 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $454 −$440 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $284 −$170 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $42 +$34 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $334 +$283 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $42 +$121 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $334 −$280 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $319 +$214 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $85 −$80 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $293 +$546 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $42 +$39 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $258 −$246 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $225 −$213 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $166 −$158 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $151 −$143 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $129 −$123 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $42 −$39 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $85 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $170 −$160 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $359 −$340 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $209 +$506 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $194 −$184 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $42 +$80 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$50 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 09 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 09 $106 −$100 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $159 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $42 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $42 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $42 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $42 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $179 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $21 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $21 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $422 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $42 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $42 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $21 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1585 history records