Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:50:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E0
0xe09d…3df1
weather · 347 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$14 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses204 / 132
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)336 / 347
History coverage16d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 11 History 336 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$8
14 days−$11
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? No 97¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Yes 35¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? No 90¢ 89¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? No 86¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? No 85¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Hong Kong have between 375-400mm of precipitation in June? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Hong Kong have less than 350mm of precipitation in June? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-52%)
Will Hong Kong have between 425-450mm of precipitation in June? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-54%)
Will Hong Kong have between 450-475mm of precipitation in June? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? No 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 6? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 4? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 6? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 4? No 95¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 4? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$2 +146%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $51 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$5 +433%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$3 +241%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 $0 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +192%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +118%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$3 +306%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 79% −$22
weather 21% +$12
other 0% −$3
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 10? SELL No 94¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? SELL No 57¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 10? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 10? SELL No 25¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 10? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? SELL No 99¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $54 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 10? BUY No 95¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 10? SELL No 99¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? SELL Yes 69¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? SELL Yes 84¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 10? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10? SELL No 97¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 10? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 10? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 10? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10? SELL No 12¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +5.9% -4.2% 57% 34% -5.0%
≤30d 336 +0.1% -9.4% 61% 29% -10.2%
≤90d 336 +0.1% -9.4% 61% 29% -10.2%
all 336 +0.1% -9.4% 61% 29% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 29% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 17% -18.8%
15% -26.0% 13% -26.6%
20% -33.3% 12% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.18 · official $13.18 (match) · 796 history records