Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:39:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe09f…4f63 crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$89 (-62%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate57%16W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% −$75
crypto 31% −$18
other 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -23.4% -30.7% 57% 39% -69.8%
≤30d 28 -23.4% -30.7% 57% 39% -69.8%
≤90d 28 -23.4% -30.7% 57% 39% -69.8%
all 28 -23.4% -30.7% 57% 39% -69.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 39% -69.8%
10% -37.3% 11% -72.7%
15% -43.3% 0% -75.3%
20% -48.9% 0% -77.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses16 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage4d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $93 −$73 -78%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records