Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:12:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0a0…3383 crypto 472 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$297 (-5%) realized −$297 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate71%334W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day47.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$69
14 days−$256
30 days−$371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$245
politics 18% −$50
world 10% −$7
sports 7% −$17
other 6% −$52
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 268 -5.2% -14.2% 87% 18% -15.9%
≤30d 472 -4.6% -13.7% 71% 18% -15.4%
≤90d 472 -4.6% -13.7% 71% 18% -15.4%
all 472 -4.6% -13.7% 71% 18% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 18% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 7% -23.5%
15% -29.5% 4% -30.9%
20% -36.4% 3% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$297
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses334 / 138
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)472 / 472
History coverage24d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day47.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 472 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1692 history records