Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0a2…c0da sports 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%6W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$3
politics 24% −$2
other 20% −$2
crypto 11% −$1
economics 9% −$1
tech 4% −$1
culture 3% −$1
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 164 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses6 / 158
Open positions1
Markets (closed)164 / 165
History coverage167d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $37 $0 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $193 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $110 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 17 $144 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 17 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 17 $156 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $156 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 17 $84 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 17 $78 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 17 $3 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 17 $82 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 17 $82 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 17 $75 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Feb 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $107 $0 -0%
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 15 $123 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 15 $63 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 15 $228 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Feb 15 $39 $0 -1%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Feb 15 $72 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 15 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 15 $168 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 15 $135 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 15 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 14 $88 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 14 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 14 $84 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 14 $4 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 14 $213 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 14 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 14 $83 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 14 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 14 $37 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $28 1h
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $37 7d
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $37 7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $31 21d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $31 21d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $31 33d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $31 36d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 95¢ $34 123d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $34 123d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 123d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 98¢ $23 123d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 123d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 95¢ $37 123d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 95¢ $37 123d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $37 123d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $37 123d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $40 123d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $40 123d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $40 123d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $40 123d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $36 123d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $36 123d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $39 123d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $39 123d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 92¢ $39 123d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 92¢ $39 123d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $37 123d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $37 123d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $3 123d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $3 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.15 · official $28.15 (match) · 536 history records