Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:11:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0a2…a349 sports 184 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$834 (-1%) realized −$931 · open +$97
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate44%78W / 99L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$599per market
Trades / day49.1pace
Fees−$360est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,362now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days−$222
14 days−$1,367
30 days−$1,057
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$665
other 26% −$745
sports 12% −$619
crypto 12% −$479
politics 3% +$426
tech 2% −$477
finance 2% −$3
culture 0% −$262
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +5.6% -4.5% 36% 27% -11.1%
≤30d 43 +3.0% -6.8% 44% 16% -11.3%
≤90d 177 -3.0% -12.2% 44% 22% -10.9%
all 177 -3.0% -12.2% 44% 22% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 22% -10.9%
10% -20.6% 16% -19.4%
15% ← realistic here -28.3% 15% -27.2%
20% -35.3% 10% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$530) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$58 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$1,362
Realized−$931
Unrealized+$97
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses78 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$360
Open positions7
Markets (closed)177 / 184
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$599
Trades / day49.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $568 $611 +$42 (+7%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 29¢ 34¢ $351 $399 +$48 (+14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $139 $153 +$14 (+10%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison? No 86¢ 90¢ $67 $70 +$3 (+5%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $63 $65 +$1 (+2%)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $37 $25 −$12 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $746 +$428 +58%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2,328 −$389 -17%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $886 $0 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5,683 +$8 +0%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $505 +$160 +32%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$6 -11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $873 −$422 -48%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 21 $32 $0 -1%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $26 +$13 +50%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,924 −$15 -1%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $16 +$9 +57%
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $265 +$2 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5,049 −$38 -1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,747 +$14 +1%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $605 −$374 -62%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $115 +$6 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1,266 −$283 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,548 −$442 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3,510 −$37 -1%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? Jun 14 $19 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $285 +$171 +60%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Jun 11 $390 −$138 -36%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 11 $500 +$562 +112%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $4,598 +$50 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 06 $415 +$16 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 06 $401 −$3 -1%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 03 $376 −$28 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $250 −$3 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 02 $1,046 −$69 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $1,492 +$16 +1%
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? Jun 02 $425 −$45 -10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,876 −$93 -2%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland Jun 01 $525 +$19 +4%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? Jun 01 $530 +$16 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $5,137 +$51 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,505 −$225 -9%
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? Jun 01 $250 −$10 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,368 +$2 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 01 $1,106 +$11 +1%
Will Theo launch a token by June 30 2026? May 31 $102 +$12 +12%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $568 −$1 -0%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? May 28 $101 $0 -0%
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? May 27 $42 −$17 -40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 27 $1,718 +$12 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $965 −$9 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $470 +$3 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $2,070 +$30 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 26 $1,329 +$3 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 26 $1,205 +$6 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
No one announced as next James Bond? BUY Yes 99¢ $54 1h
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $211 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $27 1h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $155 8h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 57¢ $64 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $96 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $10 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $228 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $29 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $43 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $30 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $30 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $9 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $7 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $10 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $5 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $5 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $10 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $5 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $53 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $7 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $100 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $20 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,361.59 · official $1,361.59 (match) · 3500 history records