Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:25:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0a5…669a other 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%39W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$12
14 days−$5
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% +$7
world 29% −$7
sports 20% −$2
other 10% −$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.4% -9.2% 44% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 18 +0.3% -9.2% 28% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 34 +0.2% -9.3% 29% 3% -9.6%
all 110 -0.6% -10.0% 35% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses39 / 71
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)110 / 110
History coverage466d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 110 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $425 +$4 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 23 $140 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $63 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $3 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $270 +$3 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $370 +$6 +2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $126 +$2 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $128 −$2 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $256 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $7 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $15 +$3 +19%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $127 −$2 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $131 −$4 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $158 −$14 -9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $144 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $159 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $15 $0 -1%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 25 $23 $0 +1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 25 $104 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $41 −$1 -3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 20 $63 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $316 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $1,343 −$2 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $1,367 +$5 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $57 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $123 −$2 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,068 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $248 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $80 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $527 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 18 $1 $0 -10%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 18 $1 $0 -2%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 18 $7 $0 +2%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 17 $13 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Aug 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 17 $12 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $153 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $153 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 93¢ $140 7h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $13 9h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $126 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $87 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $53 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $22 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $116 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $63 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $60 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $138 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $135 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $17 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $118 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $135 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $18 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $118 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $77 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $57 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $134 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $48 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $81 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $126 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $2 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $126 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $127 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 369 history records