Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:30:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E0 0xe0a6…c07d other 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$364per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$5
other 36% −$8
tech 12% −$1
sports 8% −$1
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$750) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage80d
Avg bet$364
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $1,187 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,259 −$2 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $61 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Alcaraz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? May 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $25 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $750 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? May 16 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $785 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 14 $713 −$1 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 14 $752 −$6 -1%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $101 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 03 $115 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on Apr 03 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 03 $22 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $77 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $46 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,249 13m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $13 22m
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,220 32m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $13 38m
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,185 48m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $16 58m
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,168 1h
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $899 1h
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $333 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,234 1h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $61 28d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $38 28d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $43 28d
Will Carlos Alcaraz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $12 28d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $13 28d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 28d
Will Carlos Alcaraz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $9 28d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $25 28d
Will Carlos Alcaraz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $22 28d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 30d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $25 30d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 30d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $25 30d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $49 31d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 31d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 31d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.37 · official $42.08 (match) · 92 history records