Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:45:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0a8…2906 crypto 249 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$103 (+4%) realized +$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate55%138W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day39.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days−$16
14 days−$84
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$80
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 +1.8% -7.9% 56% 51% -10.5%
≤30d 249 -1.5% -10.8% 55% 47% -12.4%
≤90d 249 -1.5% -10.8% 55% 47% -12.4%
all 249 -1.5% -10.8% 55% 47% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 47% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 38% -20.7%
15% -27.2% 32% -28.4%
20% -34.3% 25% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses138 / 111
Open positions0
Markets (closed)249 / 249
History coverage13d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day39.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 249 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $11 +$19 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $11 +$21 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $11 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$13 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $11 +$11 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$7 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$14 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$7 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$13 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$12 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$9 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$8 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$7 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$4 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $30 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $8 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $12 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $22 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $11 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $7 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $18 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 511 history records