Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E0 0xe0ac…2f8d crypto 446 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$336 (+6%) realized +$336 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate67%296W / 149L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day55.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$38
14 days+$2
30 days+$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$252
sports 1% +$1
other 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -10.9% -19.4% 68% 48% -13.1%
≤30d 445 -2.1% -11.4% 67% 53% -5.6%
≤90d 445 -2.1% -11.4% 67% 53% -5.6%
all 445 -2.1% -11.4% 67% 53% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 53% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 39% -14.6%
15% -27.6% 27% -22.9%
20% -34.7% 17% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$336
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses296 / 149
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)445 / 446
History coverage24d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day55.8
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 445 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 29 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 29 $3 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 29 $4 +$1 +19%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $72 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 29 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $35 $0 +1%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $16 −$16 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 27 $56 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +46%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $3 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +34%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 27 $70 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$3 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.05 · official $5.05 (match) · 1789 history records