Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E0 0xe0ad…748e other 20 markets active 2d ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$44 (-3%) realized −$21 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$477now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$62
14 days−$62
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$34
other 42% −$36
sports 1% −$15
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -45.0% -50.3% 0% 0% -16.1%
≤30d 6 -45.0% -50.3% 0% 0% -16.1%
≤90d 6 -45.0% -50.3% 0% 0% -16.1%
all 15 -18.8% -26.5% 47% 0% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 0% -15.9%
10% -33.6% 0% -24.0%
15% -40.0% 0% -31.3%
20% -45.9% 0% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$477
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)15 / 20
History coverage208d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $48 −$3 -6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $52 −$20 -40%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 10 $720 −$14 -2%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Jan 25 $8 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 01 $8 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 28 $2 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Nov 28 $1 $0 -23%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Nov 28 $1 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 28 $1 $0 +1%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Nov 28 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Nov 28 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $46 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 32¢ $8 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 33¢ $31 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 50¢ $52 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $48 4d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 4d
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? SELL Yes 66¢ $701 4d
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? SELL Yes 70¢ $5 4d
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? BUY Yes 64¢ $618 5d
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? BUY Yes 64¢ $103 5d
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $8 185d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 SELL No 98¢ $8 195d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 BUY No 92¢ $8 199d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 98¢ $2 199d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 69¢ $1 199d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 85¢ $1 199d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $1 199d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $1 199d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem SELL Yes 99¢ $1 199d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? SELL No 100¢ $1 199d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 90¢ $1 210d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $1 210d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 210d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $476.51 · official $476.51 (match) · 39 history records