Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:38:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0af…0d7a sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$69 (-27%) realized −$24 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$112
world 10% −$4
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-43.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -37.2% -43.2% 20% 20% -44.7%
≤30d 5 -37.2% -43.2% 20% 20% -44.7%
≤90d 5 -37.2% -43.2% 20% 20% -44.7%
all 5 -37.2% -43.2% 20% 20% -44.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.2% 20% -44.7%
10% -48.6% 20% -50.0%
15% -53.6% 20% -54.8%
20% -58.2% 20% -59.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$30 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-15%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 26¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $50 −$16 -32%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $95 −$92 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $32 +$47 +145%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 26¢ $43 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 22¢ $34 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $50 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 18¢ $86 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 22¢ $9 17h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 18¢ $9 17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $79 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $32 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.33 · official $21.33 (match) · 10 history records