Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:56:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E0 0xe0b2…8103 sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%14W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$39
sports 38% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +29.5% +17.1% 67% 67% -5.2%
≤30d 21 +29.5% +17.1% 67% 67% -5.2%
≤90d 21 +29.5% +17.1% 67% 67% -5.2%
all 21 +29.5% +17.1% 67% 67% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.1% 67% -5.2%
10% +5.9% 62% -14.3%
15% -4.3% 52% -22.6%
20% -13.7% 33% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses14 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)21 / 26
History coverage3d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil leading at halftime? Yes 73¢ 100¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+37%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $35 +$14 +41%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7 $0 -2%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +31%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 +$11 +414%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$15 +146%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
England to win the second half? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 17 $2 $0 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +24%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$4 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 1h
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 1h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $5 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $7 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $7 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 3h
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 4h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 4h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 6h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $20 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 77¢ $7 32h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 36h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 36h
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 36h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 36h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 36h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2d
England to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 3d
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.44 · official $50.44 (match) · 43 history records