Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:22:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0b7…df8d crypto 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 580d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-1%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate87%54W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$115
other 15% −$14
politics 9% +$2
world 7% +$6
weather 4% $0
sports 3% +$71
finance 3% +$3
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.0% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 2 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 7 -1.5% -10.9% 86% 0% -12.5%
all 62 -0.6% -10.1% 87% 5% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 5% -10.6%
10% -18.7% 3% -19.2%
15% -26.5% 3% -27.0%
20% -33.7% 2% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$23 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses54 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage580d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $169 $168 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 21 $167 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 01 $63 +$2 +3%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? May 14 $99 +$3 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 06 $61 +$3 +4%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Apr 10 $131 −$32 -25%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 07 $60 +$1 +1%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 27 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February? Mar 07 $58 +$1 +1%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in January 2026? Feb 03 $58 $0 +0%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Dec 29 $20 +$9 +44%
Trump out as President in 2025? Dec 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 17? Oct 19 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in September? Oct 04 $61 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 29 $5 $0 +7%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 29 $55 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Sep 03 $58 +$2 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Aug 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in July? Aug 12 $30 $0 +0%
Elon no longer world's richest before August? Aug 12 $30 $0 +1%
Lee Jae-myung arrested before July? Jul 07 $40 $0 +0%
Will Putin remain President of Russia through June? Jul 07 $50 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 07 $126 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 06 $30 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in May? Jun 06 $140 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 06 $260 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in April? May 02 $25 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmacka in April? May 02 $25 $0 +2%
US announces Afghanistan military base in April? May 02 $35 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Gold hit $3,600 before May? May 02 $51 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high in April? May 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in April? May 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in April? May 02 $100 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Apr 30 $23 +$4 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? Apr 17 $51 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? Apr 17 $129 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April? Apr 17 $192 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? Apr 11 $119 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? Apr 11 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $25 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $29 +$1 +2%
Boeing at fault for South Korea plane crash? Apr 02 $70 +$2 +2%
Heathrow airport fire foul play confirmed before April? Apr 02 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $66 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $270 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31? Mar 26 $60 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Mar 25 $53 +$2 +4%
Red Wings vs. Senators Mar 13 $109 +$71 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $169 1h
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20? BUY No 99¢ $167 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? BUY No 97¢ $63 46d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? BUY Yes 97¢ $99 65d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $99 72d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $61 76d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $60 86d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $60 86d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $59 106d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February? BUY No 99¢ $58 138d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 153d
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? SELL No 84¢ $29 175d
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? BUY No 58¢ $20 178d
Trump out as President in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $49 178d
Trump out as President in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $48 185d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $83 252d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 98¢ $29 261d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in September? BUY No 100¢ $61 266d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 93¢ $5 277d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $55 291d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 98¢ $29 314d
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? BUY No 96¢ $58 314d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $56 328d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $75 328d
Elon no longer world's richest before August? BUY No 99¢ $30 342d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? BUY No 99¢ $20 349d
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in July? BUY No 100¢ $30 349d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 100¢ $126 357d
Will Putin remain President of Russia through June? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 370d
Will Putin remain President of Russia through June? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 381d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.49 · official $168.49 (match) · 405 history records