Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E0 0xe0ba…fa03 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$402 (-2%) realized −$1,432 · open +$1,030
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$613per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$21,943now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$600
14 days−$600
30 days−$628
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% +$944
other 38% −$683
sports 11% −$153
world 6% −$324
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-64.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -55.2% -59.5% 0% 0% -75.2%
≤90d 2 -55.2% -59.5% 0% 0% -75.2%
all 10 -60.5% -64.2% 10% 10% -50.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.2% 10% -50.5%
10% -67.7% 10% -55.2%
15% -70.8% 0% -59.6%
20% -73.7% 0% -63.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$139 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$21,943
Realized−$1,432
Unrealized+$1,030
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions30
Markets (closed)10 / 40
History coverage115d
Avg bet$613
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $7,294 $7,454 +$159 (+2%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $2,133 $2,917 +$785 (+37%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $1,794 $2,416 +$622 (+35%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $1,500 $1,578 +$78 (+5%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1,350 $1,227 −$123 (-9%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $1,154 $1,146 −$9 (-1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $1,000 $1,009 +$9 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $700 $687 −$13 (-2%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 52¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $400 $389 −$11 (-3%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 65¢ 89¢ $244 $334 +$90 (+37%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? No 55¢ 55¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $300 $276 −$24 (-8%)
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $237 $233 −$3 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes $220 $218 −$2 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? No 69¢ 68¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Yes 23¢ $677 $195 −$481 (-71%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes $200 $189 −$11 (-6%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $80 $47 −$33 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $611 −$600 -98%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? May 30 $265 −$28 -10%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Mar 06 $25 +$8 +30%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 04 $180 −$180 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 13, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Feb 27 $311 −$101 -32%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 14, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $33 −$33 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 24 $1,009 $0 -0%
Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 23 $310 −$184 -59%
Will there be 18–20 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 23 $399 −$110 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $513 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $513 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $405 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 55¢ $304 1h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 69¢ $202 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $205 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $206 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $56 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $322 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $384 32h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $349 32h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $314 32h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 32h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $411 2d
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 18¢ $51 2d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 2d
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $507 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 81¢ $10 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,022 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $306 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 2d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $308 2d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $304 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 2d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,942.73 · official $21,858.43 (match) · 287 history records