Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:45:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0bc…5601 other 204 markets active 2h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$73 (-1%) realized −$2 · open −$71
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate48%98W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$474now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$46
14 days−$13
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$302
world 27% +$52
sports 16% +$148
politics 10% −$40
culture 6% −$30
tech 3% +$47
crypto 2% −$30
finance 1% +$3
economics 0% −$20
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +3.4% -6.4% 78% 44% -4.0%
≤30d 26 +4.2% -5.7% 65% 38% -9.1%
≤90d 58 -0.5% -9.9% 55% 28% -8.4%
all 203 -4.3% -13.4% 48% 25% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 25% -10.4%
10% -21.7% 18% -18.9%
15% -29.3% 11% -26.8%
20% -36.2% 6% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$474
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses98 / 105
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)203 / 204
History coverage194d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 92¢ 80¢ $545 $474 −$71 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 24 $174 −$64 -37%
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21? Jun 24 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $11 +$4 +38%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 24 $468 +$122 +26%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $4 $0 +3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$2 +12%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $25 −$23 -94%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $4 +$3 +71%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $25 +$2 +7%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 16 $180 +$34 +19%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $121 +$6 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $341 −$99 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +56%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 07 $15 $0 -3%
Will Alireza Firouzja win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 05 $26 +$4 +17%
Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 04 $85 −$32 -37%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $101 +$14 +14%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 02 $30 $0 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $20 +$25 +125%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1 $0 -6%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 29 $1 $0 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $80 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $60 +$9 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $100 +$40 +40%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $114 −$1 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 20 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1 $0 -6%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $100 −$67 -67%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 13 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 08 $2 −$1 -34%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. 76ers May 07 $100 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 06 $2 $0 +20%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets May 06 $33 +$1 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 02 $104 +$4 +4%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-03? May 02 $1 $0 -4%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $23 −$1 -2%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 30 $101 +$38 +37%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $1 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $108 +$11 +10%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics Apr 25 $200 +$7 +4%
Will Keldon Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year? Apr 23 $169 +$42 +25%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 12 $66 −$3 -4%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 12 $144 −$7 -5%
LoL: Ground Zero Gaming vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO3) - LCP R Apr 12 $77 −$8 -11%
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? Apr 12 $184 −$9 -5%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 12 $146 −$11 -7%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 11 $184 −$4 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 92¢ $90 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 19¢ $92 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 92¢ $456 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 29¢ $149 12h
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $26 13h
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21? BUY Yes 92¢ $6 15h
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21? BUY Yes 92¢ $18 16h
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 16h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL Yes 100¢ $584 16h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 16h
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 43h
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 72¢ $6 46h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 97¢ $4 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 74¢ $15 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $4 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 87¢ $27 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 81¢ $25 6d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 55¢ $10 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 55¢ $2 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 47¢ $10 7d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 8d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? SELL No 97¢ $126 8d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $473.91 · official $470.95 (match) · 790 history records