Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:23:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E0 0xe0be…4949 sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$211 (+29%) realized +$98 · open +$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$348now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$91
crypto 35% +$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +13.4% +2.6% 46% 46% +14.4%
≤30d 13 +13.4% +2.6% 46% 46% +14.4%
≤90d 13 +13.4% +2.6% 46% 46% +14.4%
all 13 +13.4% +2.6% 46% 46% +14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.6% 46% +14.4%
10% ← realistic here -7.2% 46% +3.5%
15% -16.2% 46% -6.5%
20% -24.4% 46% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$32 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$348
Realized+$98
Unrealized+$113
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions6
Markets (closed)13 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Group B UNO MILLE 39¢ 100¢ $49 $125 +$76 (+154%)
Valorant: Barça eSports vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group B Barça eSports 28¢ 100¢ $30 $107 +$77 (+257%)
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Group A Rune Eaters 41¢ 100¢ $41 $100 +$59 (+144%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Seattle Mariners 46¢ 18¢ $40 $15 −$25 (-62%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Caty McNally 47¢ 0¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-99%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Kansas City Royals 21¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $47 +$53 +114%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mariam Bolkvadze vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 25 $31 +$63 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $32 +$68 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 25 $13 −$12 -94%
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 25 $51 +$60 +119%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Bianca Andreesc Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Moez Echargui Jun 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $45 +$55 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $49 +$51 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championsh BUY UNO MILLE 39¢ $50 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 46¢ $41 1h
Valorant: Barça eSports vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group BUY Barça eSports 28¢ $31 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 21¢ $26 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Caty McNally 47¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $13 2h
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Rune Eaters 41¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Rune Eaters 41¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Rune Eaters 41¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Rune Eaters 41¢ $25 2h
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Grigor Dimitrov 35¢ $41 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson BUY Clara Tauson 50¢ $51 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Bianca Andreesc BUY Aliaksandra Sasnovich 27¢ $31 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mariam Bolkvadze vs Jeline Vandromme BUY Mariam Bolkvadze 32¢ $31 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Leolia Jeanjean BUY Leolia Jeanjean 45¢ $51 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Moez Echargui BUY Moez Echargui 35¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $45 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $49 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $347.88 · official $363.31 · 32 history records