Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:15:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E0 0xe0bf…d7fe world 17 markets active 13d ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$40,379 (-26%) realized −$40,379 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate82%14W / 3L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,266per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$55,115
30 days−$45,918
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 90% −$40,640
politics 6% −$71
other 2% +$101
finance 1% +$73
tech 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -25.9% -33.0% 67% 17% -50.1%
≤90d 17 -3.6% -12.8% 82% 12% -37.7%
all 17 -3.6% -12.8% 82% 12% -37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 12% -37.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 12% -43.7%
15% -28.8% 6% -49.1%
20% -35.8% 6% -54.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$9,995) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,048 vs −$18,395 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40,379
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses14 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage29d
Avg bet$9,266
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $49,171 −$20,802 -42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $34,354 −$34,313 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 11 $1,012 +$19 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 11 $1,005 +$6 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $20,000 +$986 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $24,411 +$8,186 +34%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House May 29 $9,995 −$71 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $7,475 +$5,157 +69%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 25 $1,000 +$9 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 24 $1,000 +$11 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $1,000 +$14 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 23 $1,003 +$58 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 23 $501 +$12 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 23 $490 +$3 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $3,102 +$112 +4%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $1,003 +$53 +5%
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $1,002 +$41 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $42 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $41 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $502 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $377 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 93¢ $160 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 93¢ $186 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 93¢ $30 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $653 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 93¢ $423 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 93¢ $120 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 93¢ $76 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 93¢ $35 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $10,000 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $10,000 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,012 18d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $1,011 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $28,368 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $28,368 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $5,986 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $10,000 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5,000 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20,986 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $12,597 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $20,000 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32,597 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $2,511 31d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL No 81¢ $2,510 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $2,316 33d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL No 81¢ $2,316 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $12,632 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records