Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:39:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E0 0xe0c0…9a74 crypto 207 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized +$116 · open −$191
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%89W / 110L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$157est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$909now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$32
14 days−$3,833
30 days−$2,173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$1,779
other 27% −$1,272
sports 12% +$1,159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -75.9% -78.2% 0% 0% -57.0%
≤30d 129 -21.9% -29.3% 36% 35% -19.8%
≤90d 199 -14.8% -22.9% 45% 42% -14.8%
all 199 -14.8% -22.9% 45% 42% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.9% 42% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -30.3% 37% -23.0%
15% -37.0% 29% -30.4%
20% -43.2% 21% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$87 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$909
Realized+$116
Unrealized−$191
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses89 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$157
Open positions6
Markets (closed)199 / 207
History coverage32d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1,000 $810 −$190 (-19%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 26 $30 −$4 -13%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $30 −$1 -4%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,845 −$741 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $517 −$517 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $710 −$215 -30%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $607 −$115 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$39 +76%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $299 −$292 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $102 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $83 −$80 -96%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $53 −$50 -95%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $803 −$20 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $467 +$513 +110%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $816 −$27 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $119 −$113 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $23 +$9 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $463 −$463 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,333 −$74 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $184 −$175 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $192 −$7 -4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $200 −$8 -4%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $105 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$146 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $248 +$260 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $97 +$149 +154%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,761 +$1,755 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $93 −$90 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $73 +$59 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 09 $52 +$25 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 09 $42 +$18 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$29 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$14 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $52 −$52 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $657 +$630 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 02 $470 −$50 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $4 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 62¢ $29 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score AND New Zealand vs. Belgi BUY 57¢ $20 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S BUY 31¢ $10 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,026 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $304 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $208 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 12d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $732 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $198 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $231 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $88 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $495 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $444 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $266 12d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $95 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 61¢ $1,012 12d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 57¢ $1,067 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $908.72 · official $938.17 · 759 history records