Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:23:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0c1…7eda other 187 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate73%128W / 48L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$469per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$4,017now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$312
7 days+$706
14 days+$997
30 days+$924
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$41
other 19% −$18
weather 13% +$808
politics 12% +$176
finance 11% −$239
sports 6% −$81
crypto 3% +$15
economics 1% −$27
culture 1% −$220
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +8.8% -1.5% 91% 26% -3.4%
≤30d 54 -2.1% -11.4% 69% 20% -6.4%
≤90d 176 -4.2% -13.3% 73% 10% -9.1%
all 176 -4.2% -13.3% 73% 10% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 10% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 6% -17.8%
15% -29.2% 3% -25.7%
20% -36.1% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$543) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$38 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$4,017
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$69
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses128 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions11
Markets (closed)176 / 187
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$469
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 27? No 93¢ 94¢ $2,078 $2,103 +$24 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 26? No 94¢ 100¢ $439 $465 +$26 (+6%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $399 $399 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 26? No 72¢ 100¢ $219 $303 +$84 (+39%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $296 $233 −$63 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 26? No 96¢ 100¢ $211 $220 +$9 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 27? No 98¢ 99¢ $109 $110 +$2 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $56 $51 −$5 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on June 27? No 97¢ 98¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $42 $34 −$8 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 26 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 26 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 26 $344 +$111 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 26 $386 +$35 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 25 $901 +$97 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 67°F or below on June 2 Jun 25 $568 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 25 $606 +$46 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 24 $282 +$40 +14%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 24 $1,807 +$11 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 23 $196 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 23 $886 +$150 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 23 $518 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 23 $568 −$27 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 22 $638 +$107 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 22 $202 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 21 $320 +$18 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 21 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 21 $1,157 −$84 -7%
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $291 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $199 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 20 $207 +$142 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 20 $142 +$12 +8%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 19 $10 −$2 -20%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $40 −$1 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19? Jun 18 $58 −$18 -31%
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $524 +$90 +17%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 17 $117 −$3 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $553 −$49 -9%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 17 $171 +$11 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $255 +$101 +40%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,001 +$146 +15%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $298 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $49 +$18 +36%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $393 +$1 +0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $90 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 06 $58 −$4 -7%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 06 $197 $0 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $0 $0 -4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $0 $0 -4%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 05 $905 +$7 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 03 $1,502 +$34 +2%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? Jun 01 $3,412 −$2 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $595 +$3 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1,082 +$10 +1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $102 −$43 -42%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 92¢ $15 14m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 92¢ $3 14m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 92¢ $19 14m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 92¢ $19 14m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 92¢ $19 15m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 92¢ $15 15m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 92¢ $18 15m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 92¢ $124 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 94¢ $94 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 94¢ $774 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 94¢ $196 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 92¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 94¢ $128 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 92¢ $67 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $33 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 92¢ $25 9h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 93¢ $161 9h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 93¢ $235 10h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 96¢ $96 18h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 96¢ $19 18h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 22h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 92¢ $162 22h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 98¢ $109 23h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 92¢ $92 29h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 95¢ $53 29h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 95¢ $42 29h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 95¢ $18 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,016.93 · official $4,016.93 (match) · 3500 history records