trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 8 | -26.9% | -33.9% | 50% | 25% | -13.7% |
| all | 13 | -7.0% | -15.9% | 54% | 38% | -10.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.9% | 38% | -10.3% |
| 10% | -23.9% | 23% | -18.9% |
| 15% | -31.3% | 15% | -26.8% |
| 20% | -38.0% | 15% | -33.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 66¢ | $500 | $812 | +$312 (+62%) |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? | No | 71¢ | 70¢ | $280 | $277 | −$3 (-1%) |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 14¢ | $150 | $139 | −$11 (-7%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 19¢ | 19¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $48 | $48 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 34¢ | 4¢ | $345 | $39 | −$306 (-89%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before GTA VI? | May 17 | $1,025 | −$51 | -5% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on | May 17 | $100 | +$14 | +14% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on | May 17 | $100 | +$31 | +31% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Apr 23 | $300 | +$15 | +5% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 23 | $100 | +$2 | +2% |
| Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Apr 23 | $50 | −$31 | -63% |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Apr 11 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? | Apr 11 | $40 | −$39 | -98% |
| Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? | Mar 24 | $20 | +$39 | +194% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | Mar 24 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | Mar 05 | $20 | −$11 | -57% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Jan 26 | $20 | +$14 | +72% |
| Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $7 mil | Jan 19 | $250 | +$39 | +16% |