Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:08:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E0 0xe0cd…30db world 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$43 (+1%) realized +$63 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$362per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$381now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$25
sports 35% +$56
politics 16% −$9
other 9% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.7% -11.9% 0% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 4 +0.7% -8.9% 25% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 14 -6.1% -15.0% 43% 0% -8.8%
all 14 -6.1% -15.0% 43% 0% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 0% -8.8%
10% -23.1% 0% -17.6%
15% -30.6% 0% -25.5%
20% -37.4% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$9 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$381
Realized+$63
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage91d
Avg bet$362
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? No 91¢ 86¢ $400 $381 −$20 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? Jun 23 $419 −$11 -3%
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? Jun 15 $228 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs 25 cents (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Group May 28 $490 +$30 +6%
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? May 27 $488 −$3 -1%
Spread: IK Start (-2.5) May 27 $471 +$24 +5%
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? May 25 $473 −$5 -1%
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5) May 24 $476 +$24 +5%
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? May 23 $475 $0 +0%
Spread: FC Groningen (-2.5) May 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? May 21 $72 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? May 08 $469 +$2 +0%
Spread: Gwangju FC (-1.5) Apr 23 $417 +$13 +3%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Apr 22 $418 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027? Mar 29 $99 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $400 1h
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $408 2d
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $419 3d
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $228 10d
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $228 10d
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs 25 cents (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Group BUY BESTIA 94¢ $490 29d
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $133 29d
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $351 29d
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $488 30d
Spread: IK Start (-2.5) SELL Vålerenga Fotball 100¢ $494 30d
Spread: IK Start (-2.5) BUY Vålerenga Fotball 95¢ $471 31d
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $468 32d
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? BUY No 91¢ $473 32d
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5) BUY FC Internazionale Milano 95¢ $476 33d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $5 34d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $471 34d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $475 34d
Spread: FC Groningen (-2.5) BUY FC Groningen $17 35d
Spread: FC Groningen (-2.5) BUY FC Groningen $17 35d
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $37 35d
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $35 35d
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $36 36d
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 36d
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $35 36d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL No 98¢ $471 49d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? BUY No 98¢ $469 49d
Spread: Gwangju FC (-1.5) BUY Pohang Steelers FC 97¢ $417 64d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $418 64d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $418 64d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $49 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $380.60 · official $387.20 · 35 history records