Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:17:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0ce…13a2 world 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$57 (-6%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$60
other 33% +$3
world 26% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +64.5% +48.8% 100% 100% +48.8%
≤30d 2 +26.9% +14.8% 50% 50% +40.8%
≤90d 12 -34.2% -40.4% 25% 8% -15.3%
all 12 -34.2% -40.4% 25% 8% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.4% 8% -15.3%
10% -46.1% 8% -23.4%
15% -51.3% 8% -30.8%
20% -56.1% 8% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage66d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? Jun 17 $43 +$27 +64%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 25 $6 −$1 -11%
Spread: Al Hazem SC (-1.5) May 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? May 14 $23 −$1 -4%
Spread: Haras El Hodood SC (-2.5) May 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? May 13 $41 −$20 -50%
Spread: Al Taawoun Saudi Club (-2.5) May 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 11 $51 −$6 -12%
Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-2.5) Apr 21 $24 −$24 -100%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Apr 21 $76 −$1 -1%
Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5) Apr 13 $305 +$9 +3%
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Apr 12 $292 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $36 1h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $34 1h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? BUY Yes $23 3h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? BUY Yes $20 4h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $5 23d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes $6 23d
Spread: Al Hazem SC (-1.5) BUY Al Hazem SC $6 34d
Spread: Al Hazem SC (-1.5) BUY Al Hazem SC $6 34d
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? SELL Yes $1 34d
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? SELL Yes $6 34d
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? SELL Yes $6 34d
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? SELL Yes $4 34d
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? SELL Yes $6 34d
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? BUY Yes $6 34d
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? BUY Yes $6 34d
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? BUY Yes $6 34d
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? BUY Yes $6 34d
Spread: Haras El Hodood SC (-2.5) BUY Haras El Hodood SC $6 35d
Spread: Haras El Hodood SC (-2.5) BUY Haras El Hodood SC $6 35d
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $10 35d
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $11 35d
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $21 35d
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $19 35d
Spread: Al Taawoun Saudi Club (-2.5) BUY Al Taawoun Saudi Club $10 36d
Spread: Al Taawoun Saudi Club (-2.5) BUY Al Taawoun Saudi Club $11 36d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $22 36d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $23 36d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $25 37d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $26 37d
Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-2.5) BUY Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC $12 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records