Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0d1…b755 weather 9 markets active 5d ago coverage 23d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-2%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 87% −$8
world 12% $0
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -4.0% -13.1% 33% 0% -14.1%
≤30d 9 +8.4% -1.9% 33% 11% -12.8%
≤90d 9 +8.4% -1.9% 33% 11% -12.8%
all 9 +8.4% -1.9% 33% 11% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 11% -12.8%
10% -11.3% 11% -21.2%
15% -19.9% 11% -28.8%
20% -27.7% 11% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage23d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $22 −$4 -19%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $49 −$3 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma May 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 21? May 21 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 21 $1 +$2 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? SELL No $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL No 37¢ $18 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL No 37¢ $18 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 41¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY No 44¢ $22 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? SELL No 27¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 25¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL Yes 55¢ $8 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? BUY No $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 56¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 56¢ $6 5d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $22 5d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $22 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $49 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL No 40¢ $19 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 40¢ $20 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $49 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma SELL Yes 94¢ $29 28d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma BUY Yes 94¢ $29 28d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 21? SELL No $0 28d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 21? BUY No $0 28d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 21? BUY No $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $3 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records