Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:13:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0d4…e138 other 352 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$24 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%336W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$4
crypto 21% −$7
sports 19% −$13
finance 11% +$1
politics 8% $0
tech 4% $0
culture 4% $0
world 2% −$4
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -1.6% -10.9% 97% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 85 -0.5% -9.9% 98% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 164 -0.7% -10.1% 98% 0% -9.7%
all 343 -1.1% -10.5% 98% 1% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 1% -10.4%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses336 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)343 / 352
History coverage223d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 343 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Alexander Isak: 3+ goals No 99¢ 90¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Anthony Elanga: 2+ goals No 99¢ 85¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Khatt Ahmar win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Steve Marshall be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week 1? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will María Jesús Montero be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Enner Valencia: 2+ goals Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Cody Gakpo: 2+ assists Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Armenia Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Merih Demiral: 2+ assists Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Findlay Curtis: 3+ goals Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Johan Manzambi: 5+ shots Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Cédric Itten: 3+ goals Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 12, 2026 Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 12, 2026 Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Ramón Sosa: 4+ shots Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Isidro Pitta: 4+ shots Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 22 be betwe Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 22 be betwe Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 22 be at le Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 22 be betwe Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 22 be betwe Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will "Phoebe Bridgers" be featured on Olivia Rodrigo's new album? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? Jun 12 $4 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +4%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in May? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% or less in May? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in May? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Italy? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Slovenia vs. Germany: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: Moldova (-1.5) Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will 200 to 229 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Low Energy" this week? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will VOX (VOX) win fewer than 13 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Jun 06 $1 $0 +3%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Kosovo 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 05 $10 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Kosovo 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 05 $10 $0 +3%
Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $10.5B? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ciena Q2 Networking Platforms revenue be above $1.4B? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
KK Studentski Centar vs. Mega Mozzart Jun 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Oh Joong-ki win the 2026 Gyeongsangbuk Province Gubernatorial Ele Jun 04 $1 $0 +2%
Will Palo Alto Networks Q3 Next-Generation Security ARR be above $7.5B Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Anthony Elanga: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Alexander Isak: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 3h
Enner Valencia: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? BUY No 96¢ $10 7h
Cody Gakpo: 2+ assists BUY No 99¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 98¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY No 96¢ $10 10h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week BUY No 99¢ $1 23h
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? BUY No 100¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye? BUY No 95¢ $10 23h
Merih Demiral: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $10 23h
Findlay Curtis: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $10 26h
Findlay Curtis: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $10 26h
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 27h
Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $10 29h
Cédric Itten: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $10 32h
Johan Manzambi: 5+ shots BUY No 100¢ $10 32h
Isidro Pitta: 4+ shots BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Ramón Sosa: 4+ shots BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 3 Czechia? BUY No 98¢ $10 3d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 12, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 12, 2026 BUY No 98¢ $1 3d
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 22 be at le BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 22 be betwe BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 22 be betwe BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 22 be betwe BUY Yes 100¢ $1 3d
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 22 be betwe BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.19 · official $25.19 (match) · 986 history records