Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:37:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0db…522a crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$20 (-36%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$12
politics 36% −$14
other 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-44.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -38.4% -44.3% 47% 26% -56.1%
≤30d 19 -38.4% -44.3% 47% 26% -56.1%
≤90d 19 -38.4% -44.3% 47% 26% -56.1%
all 19 -38.4% -44.3% 47% 26% -56.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.3% 26% -56.1%
10% -49.6% 21% -60.3%
15% -54.5% 5% -64.2%
20% -59.0% 0% -67.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage11d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $14 −$11 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $6 −$3 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 3¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.98 (match) · 52 history records