Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:23:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E0 0xe0dc…3944 world 721 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 157d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,745 (+4%) realized +$11,564 · open +$181
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate89%617W / 80L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$397per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$14,212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$67
14 days+$407
30 days+$1,474
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 25% +$323
other 23% +$5,599
politics 16% +$1,755
sports 15% −$109
tech 8% +$338
economics 6% +$542
finance 5% −$1,492
culture 1% +$4
crypto 1% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +18.7% +7.4% 100% 38% -4.0%
≤30d 108 +3.9% -6.0% 92% 18% -4.1%
≤90d 245 +9.6% -0.9% 87% 22% -7.8%
all 697 +8.1% -2.2% 89% 15% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 15% -7.2%
10% -11.6% 8% -16.1%
15% -20.1% 5% -24.2%
20% -27.9% 4% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$86 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$14,212
Realized+$11,564
Unrealized+$181
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses617 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions25
Markets (closed)697 / 721
History coverage158d ⚠
Avg bet$397
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 697 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok? No 99¢ 99¢ $6,256 $6,244 −$13 (-0%)
Will Meta acquire TikTok? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,684 $2,700 +$15 (+1%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 90¢ 98¢ $1,015 $1,108 +$93 (+9%)
Will AppLovin acquire TikTok? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,093 $1,099 +$6 (+1%)
Will Amazon acquire TikTok? No 99¢ 99¢ $667 $668 +$1 (+0%)
Will Walmart acquire TikTok? No 93¢ 99¢ $620 $658 +$38 (+6%)
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026? No 71¢ 82¢ $301 $348 +$47 (+16%)
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026? No 75¢ 59¢ $422 $333 −$89 (-21%)
Will Trump say "Buy Dell Computer / Buy a Dell Computer" in June? No 82¢ 84¢ $190 $196 +$6 (+3%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 80¢ 86¢ $181 $193 +$12 (+7%)
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? No 40¢ 84¢ $68 $146 +$78 (+114%)
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.5m barrels per day in 2026? No 90¢ 88¢ $129 $127 −$2 (-1%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? No 98¢ 99¢ $86 $87 +$1 (+1%)
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok? No 99¢ 99¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+0%)
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? No 68¢ 77¢ $41 $46 +$5 (+13%)
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 92¢ 97¢ $41 $44 +$2 (+5%)
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 81¢ 74¢ $48 $44 −$5 (-9%)
Will Trump say "Hippo" or "Hippopotamus" in June? No 88¢ 81¢ $42 $39 −$3 (-7%)
Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026? No 72¢ 88¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+23%)
Kristi Noem impeached in 2026? Yes 26¢ 13¢ $26 $13 −$13 (-50%)
ECB rate cut in 2026? No 57¢ 82¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+45%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 81¢ 90¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026? No 34¢ 18¢ $17 $9 −$8 (-49%)
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $45 +$7 +16%
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Jun 15 $41 +$3 +8%
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? Jun 15 $70 +$29 +41%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 13 $118 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $101 +$3 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $26 +$21 +81%
Will Trump praise Allah by June 30? Jun 10 $664 +$2 +0%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $49 +$2 +4%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $29 +$1 +2%
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Jun 07 $16 +$2 +14%
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $49 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $18 −$12 -67%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $198 +$2 +1%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 05 $712 +$376 +53%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 05 $294 +$8 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 05 $39 −$39 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 03 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Dollar General (DG) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Trump Hotel" or "Trump Vegas" in May? Jun 02 $212 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Trump Tower" in May? Jun 02 $77 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Goat" in May? Jun 02 $183 +$2 +1%
Will Trump say "Mouse" in May? Jun 02 $294 +$3 +1%
Will Trump say "Chicken" in May? Jun 02 $130 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Hawk" in May? Jun 02 $482 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Trump National" or "Trump International" or "Trump Tur Jun 02 $134 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Trump Card" or "Trump Gold Card" in May? Jun 02 $208 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Whale" in May? Jun 02 $516 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Trump Family" in May? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Trump Passport" in May? Jun 01 $110 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Trump Plan" in May? Jun 01 $267 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Trump Pool" or "Trump Lake" or "Trump Pond" in May? Jun 01 $208 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Trump Accord" or "Trump Peace" in May? Jun 01 $204 +$2 +1%
Will Trump say "Trump Time" in May? Jun 01 $61 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Trump Tax" in May? Jun 01 $389 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Trump Grande" in May? Jun 01 $329 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Trump Strait" or "Strait of Trump" in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Trump Arc" or "Arc de Trump" or "Trump Arch" in May? Jun 01 $317 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Trump Kennedy Center" or "Trump-Kennedy Center" in May Jun 01 $567 +$7 +1%
Will Trump say "Trump Coin" or "Trump Meme" in May? Jun 01 $226 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Trump Heights" in May? Jun 01 $125 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Trump-Class" or "Trump Fleet" in May? Jun 01 $144 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Cat" in May? Jun 01 $216 +$10 +5%
Will Trump say "Hippo" or "Hippopotamus" in May? Jun 01 $1,138 +$88 +8%
Will Trump say "Cat" in May? Jun 01 $85 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "America Last" in May? Jun 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Christmas" in May? Jun 01 $27 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Kangaroo" in May? Jun 01 $933 +$50 +5%
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" in May? Jun 01 $61 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Discombobulator" or "Discombobulated" in May? Jun 01 $8 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 93¢ $50 1h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 2h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 9h
Will Meta acquire TikTok? SELL No 99¢ $20 9h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 9h
Will Amazon acquire TikTok? SELL No 99¢ $10 9h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $15 9h
Will AppLovin acquire TikTok? SELL No 99¢ $15 9h
Will Trump say "Buy Dell Computer / Buy a Dell Computer" in June? BUY No 85¢ $88 13h
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok? SELL No 100¢ $44 16h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $99 24h
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $99 24h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? BUY No 99¢ $21 35h
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok? SELL No 99¢ $21 35h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? BUY No 98¢ $42 36h
Will Meta acquire TikTok? SELL No 99¢ $42 36h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $198 36h
Will Meta acquire TikTok? SELL No 99¢ $198 36h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $9 36h
Will Walmart acquire TikTok? SELL No 99¢ $9 36h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? BUY No 98¢ $23 36h
Will Walmart acquire TikTok? SELL No 99¢ $23 36h
Will Meta acquire TikTok? BUY No 99¢ $31 2d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $31 2d
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok? BUY No 99¢ $74 2d
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok? BUY No 99¢ $17 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 83¢ $28 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 83¢ $0 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 83¢ $55 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 82¢ $82 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,212.39 · official $14,212.39 (match) · 3500 history records