Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:02:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0dd…18de sports 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$34 (+1%) realized +$36 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%68W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$127
7 days+$281
14 days+$254
30 days+$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$91
sports 36% −$6
crypto 15% +$83
weather 2% −$49
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +14.4% +3.5% 65% 65% +8.2%
≤30d 149 -10.0% -18.6% 46% 39% -5.4%
≤90d 149 -10.0% -18.6% 46% 39% -5.4%
all 149 -10.0% -18.6% 46% 39% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 39% -5.4%
10% -26.4% 36% -14.4%
15% -33.5% 34% -22.7%
20% -40.0% 28% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$341
Realized+$36
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses68 / 81
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)149 / 150
History coverage27d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $343 $341 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $202 +$131 +64%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $303 −$102 -34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$92 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$18 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $151 −$122 -80%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $220 +$110 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $127 +$93 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $113 +$14 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $65 +$49 +76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 $0 -4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -66%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +40%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$2 -42%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 $0 -4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$8 -67%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $34 +$22 +65%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$31 -62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 +$14 +122%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $4 −$2 -50%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $3 $0 -6%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Ilkley: Felix Gill vs Filippo Romano Jun 10 $3 +$2 +76%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. AS FAR: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $3 −$2 -56%
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will RCA Zemamra win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $3 +$3 +109%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $6 −$3 -49%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 08 $3 −$3 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $8 +$1 +7%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $3 +$2 +73%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $3 +$3 +83%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $4 −$1 -31%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $9 +$5 +59%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $4 +$4 +90%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $4 +$4 +105%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $4 +$4 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $345 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $333 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $202 3h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $201 3h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $303 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 12h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 14¢ $30 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $151 36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $220 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $127 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $113 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 62¢ $2 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 67¢ $4 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $340.93 · official $340.93 (match) · 288 history records