Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:35:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E0 0xe0de…5872 world 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 553d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$31 (+1%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate58%32W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$11
other 31% +$1
sports 13% +$14
politics 6% +$29
finance 2% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.2% -10.6% 29% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 21 -5.9% -14.9% 43% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 26 -2.6% -11.9% 50% 4% -9.6%
all 55 +2.6% -7.2% 58% 15% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 15% -8.0%
10% -16.1% 11% -16.8%
15% -24.2% 11% -24.8%
20% -31.6% 7% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

553d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses32 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage553d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $4 $0 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $59 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 16 $29 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $44 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $41 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $35 −$3 -9%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $31 +$1 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $363 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $11 −$2 -17%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 04 $38 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $33 −$2 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $20 −$9 -47%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $19 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $48 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $3 $0 +9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $236 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $6 +$3 +52%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 12 $246 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 11 $223 +$1 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 23 $95 −$1 -1%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Mar 22 $38 +$18 +47%
Will Donald Trump sign 28-29 executive orders in February? Mar 03 $51 $0 +1%
Silva vs. Almeida Mar 03 $57 +$24 +43%
Ducks vs. Sabres Feb 28 $44 +$26 +59%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 27 $37 +$1 +2%
New Mexico vs. San Diego State Feb 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Ronald" or "Reagan" at CPAC conference on Saturday? Feb 24 $16 +$11 +67%
Eastern Kentucky vs. North Florida Feb 24 $17 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Feb 24 $18 −$1 -6%
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 20 $7 $0 +0%
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? Feb 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will Jim Jordan be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119t Jan 06 $18 $0 +1%
Will Anthony Edwards lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 03 $9 $0 +3%
Jazz vs. Knicks Jan 02 $20 +$2 +11%
Bulls vs. Wizards Jan 02 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Daniil Dubov win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? Jan 01 $19 +$1 +3%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Dec 31 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $30 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $27 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $27 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $8 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $4 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $12 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 75¢ $12 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 75¢ $16 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $28 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $22 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $12 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $12 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $4 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $32 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $35 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $1 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $2 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 97¢ $35 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $34 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $24 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.21 · official $30.21 (match) · 177 history records