Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:35:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0e1…08a5 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$20 (+5%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$12
crypto 7% −$10
world 5% $0
sports 4% +$2
culture 2% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.8% -13.0% 38% 25% -5.8%
≤30d 8 -3.8% -13.0% 38% 25% -5.8%
≤90d 11 -2.1% -11.4% 45% 27% -5.5%
all 39 -20.2% -27.8% 38% 21% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 21% -9.0%
10% -34.7% 5% -17.7%
15% -41.1% 5% -25.7%
20% -46.8% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage153d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $84 +$2 +3%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +45%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$2 -15%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -37%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $121 +$22 +18%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $11 −$1 -13%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $28 −$3 -12%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $32 −$6 -19%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $8 $0 +2%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $38 +$5 +14%
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? Mar 20 $18 −$2 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 17? Mar 16 $9 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? Mar 16 $5 −$1 -20%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Mar 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 28 Jan 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 28 Jan 28 $3 $0 +13%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 28 $1 $0 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 28 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 28 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 22 $1 $0 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 22 $1 $0 -5%
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Panathinaikos Jan 22 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January? Jan 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $88,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 21? Jan 21 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship? Jan 21 $1 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 21 Jan 21 $2 $0 -24%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026? Jan 21 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? Jan 21 $1 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 20 $3 $0 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 20? Jan 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 20? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026? Jan 20 $1 $0 +8%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026? Jan 20 $4 +$1 +14%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 19 $10 $0 +2%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Jan 16 $4 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $38 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $42 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 73¢ $49 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $42 9h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 9h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $143 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $9 26h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $48 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 34h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $26 34h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 6d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 44d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 45d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 45d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 45d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 45d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 45d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 45d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 45d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records