trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 30 | -15.7% | -23.7% | 30% | 27% | -3.2% |
| ≤30d | 31 | -18.4% | -26.2% | 29% | 26% | -3.4% |
| ≤90d | 31 | -18.4% | -26.2% | 29% | 26% | -3.4% |
| all | 31 | -18.4% | -26.2% | 29% | 26% | -3.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -26.2% | 26% | -3.4% |
| 10% | -33.2% | 26% | -12.7% |
| 15% | -39.7% | 19% | -21.1% |
| 20% | -45.6% | 13% | -28.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? | Yes | 89¢ | 88¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Yes | 29¢ | 28¢ | $15 | $15 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 12¢ | $3 | $4 | +$1 (+19%) |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | Yes | 15¢ | 18¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+23%) |
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Yes | 9¢ | 10¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+17%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Jun 19 | $15 | −$7 | -47% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 19 | $51 | +$31 | +62% |
| Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? | Jun 19 | $22 | +$2 | +9% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $20 | +$6 | +31% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $51 | −$5 | -10% |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 18 | $3 | −$1 | -47% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 18 | $3 | $0 | -3% |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $3 | $0 | -9% |
| Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? | Jun 17 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $10 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $44 | +$16 | +36% |
| Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? | Jun 17 | $2 | −$1 | -59% |
| Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $58 | +$16 | +28% |
| Spread: Austria (-1.5) | Jun 17 | $13 | −$9 | -69% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $40 | +$23 | +57% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $20 | +$10 | +48% |
| Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $12 | +$21 | +170% |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $25 | −$18 | -70% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $13 | −$13 | -98% |
| Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) | Jun 15 | $16 | −$1 | -6% |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $15 | −$15 | -99% |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | -17% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | -9% |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Jun 14 | $2 | −$1 | -33% |
| Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? | Jun 14 | $2 | $0 | -23% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Spread: Germany (-3.5) | Jun 14 | $36 | −$20 | -57% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | Jun 14 | $2 | −$1 | -37% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |