Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:21:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0e5…f33c other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$26 (+5%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%9W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$17
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$54
sports 24% −$21
world 4% −$17
politics 1% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -15.7% -23.7% 30% 27% -3.2%
≤30d 31 -18.4% -26.2% 29% 26% -3.4%
≤90d 31 -18.4% -26.2% 29% 26% -3.4%
all 31 -18.4% -26.2% 29% 26% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 26% -3.4%
10% -33.2% 26% -12.7%
15% -39.7% 19% -21.1%
20% -45.6% 13% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$5 · ×2.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses9 / 22
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)31 / 36
History coverage7d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+19%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Yes 15¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$7 -47%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $22 +$2 +9%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$5 -10%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 18 $3 −$1 -47%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $3 $0 -3%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -9%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $44 +$16 +36%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -59%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $58 +$16 +28%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $13 −$9 -69%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$23 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 +$21 +170%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$18 -70%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $16 −$1 -6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 14 $1 $0 -17%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -9%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -33%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 -23%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $36 −$20 -57%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -37%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 12h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 12h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 21h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 21h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $20 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 94¢ $26 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 38¢ $19 27h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 31h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes $2 33h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 42h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 42h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 44h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 45h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 46h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 35¢ $11 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $17 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $42 2d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.41 · official $70.42 (match) · 82 history records