Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:00:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0e7…6bc0 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$270 (+16%) realized +$275 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%8W / 14L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$162
7 days−$12
14 days+$145
30 days+$254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$395
other 13% −$141
crypto 7% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -4.5% -13.6% 36% 36% -11.5%
≤30d 22 -3.7% -12.9% 36% 36% +5.5%
≤90d 22 -3.7% -12.9% 36% 36% +5.5%
all 22 -3.7% -12.9% 36% 36% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 36% +5.5%
10% -21.2% 36% -4.6%
15% -28.8% 32% -13.8%
20% -35.8% 27% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$49 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized+$275
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses8 / 14
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage15d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $120 $116 −$4 (-4%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $51 +$13 +26%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $82 +$199 +243%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 $0 -3%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $26 +$61 +238%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $25 −$25 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $60 −$59 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $51 +$24 +46%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $266 −$62 -24%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$39 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $99 +$342 +344%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $82 +$66 +80%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $203 +$197 +97%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 14 $90 −$88 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $64 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $122 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $281 42h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 46h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes $5 46h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $5 46h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $82 46h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $102 2d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $60 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $25 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 38¢ $75 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 5d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $36 9d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 11d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 11d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 11d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $101 11d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 11d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $102 11d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 12d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $40 12d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 12d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $153 12d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 39¢ $87 12d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.40 · official $135.40 (match) · 38 history records