Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0e9…665c politics 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%5W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$2
politics 29% −$1
other 15% −$1
crypto 10% −$9
culture 6% −$1
economics 4% $0
world 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 4 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
all 146 -0.8% -10.2% 3% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses5 / 141
Open positions0
Markets (closed)146 / 146
History coverage172d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 146 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 18 $35 −$1 -3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 16 $107 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 16 $88 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 16 $75 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 16 $127 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 16 $4 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 16 $81 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 16 $169 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 14 $83 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 14 $79 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 14 $118 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 14 $102 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 11 $79 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 11 $88 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Feb 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 11 $133 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Feb 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 11 $87 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 08 $94 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 08 $86 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? Feb 08 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 08 $92 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $35 1h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $35 5h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $39 12d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $40 12d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $33 25d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $33 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? SELL No 94¢ $34 38d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $35 41d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 92¢ $42 129d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 92¢ $42 129d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $40 129d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $40 129d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru SELL Yes 98¢ $38 129d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 98¢ $38 129d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $41 129d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $41 129d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $42 129d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 129d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $38 129d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $38 129d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 96¢ $4 129d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $40 129d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 96¢ $4 129d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $5 129d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $5 129d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $3 129d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 129d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $3 129d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $34 129d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $5 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 403 history records