Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:48:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0e9…5112 sports 475 markets active 1h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,307 (-4%) realized −$1,307 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%201W / 274L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$78
14 days−$92
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$1,005
other 14% −$415
tech 1% −$6
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -2.9% -12.2% 38% 35% -15.2%
≤30d 49 -5.5% -14.5% 37% 35% -15.3%
≤90d 50 -7.4% -16.2% 36% 34% -20.2%
all 475 +1.0% -8.7% 42% 40% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 40% -13.6%
10% -17.4% 39% -21.8%
15% -25.4% 37% -29.4%
20% -32.7% 34% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$47 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,307
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses201 / 274
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)475 / 475
History coverage227d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 475 Trades
no open positions (183 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $65 −$25 -38%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $51 +$49 +97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$4 -9%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $44 −$5 -12%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $53 −$52 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $26 −$26 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $16 +$14 +90%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $7 −$6 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $15 +$35 +238%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $16 −$16 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1 +$1 +79%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $12 +$37 +312%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$7 -36%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $49 +$27 +55%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $50 +$50 +101%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $73 −$72 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $27 −$26 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $23 −$22 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $24 −$24 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $27 $0 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 +$49 +97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $27 −$12 -44%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $27 −$3 -10%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $47 +$53 +114%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$49 +97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $26 −$26 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $16 +$24 +146%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $18 −$18 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $36 +$34 +93%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $81 −$6 -7%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $28 +$22 +79%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $59 −$10 -18%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $16 −$1 -7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $46 −$18 -38%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $8 +$15 +188%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $23 +$27 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 −$2 -13%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $69 +$64 +93%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $53 −$52 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $16 −$16 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $71 +$66 +94%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $76 −$75 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 23 $101 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $17 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $46 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 39¢ $38 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $48 3h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 39¢ $38 21h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 43¢ $44 22h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $53 22h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 23h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $26 24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 13¢ $7 26h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $16 29h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $16 45h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $15 45h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 97¢ $48 45h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 23¢ $12 45h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 SELL Over 27¢ $13 46h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $0 46h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 46h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 76¢ $75 46h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 47h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $49 47h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $50 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $73 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $27 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $23 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $24 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 55¢ $27 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1227 history records