Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:31:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0ec…28b9 sports 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$120 (-28%) realized −$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 25d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$86
sports 49% −$186
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -15.1% -23.2% 29% 29% -10.4%
≤30d 8 -25.7% -32.8% 25% 25% -30.5%
≤90d 8 -25.7% -32.8% 25% 25% -30.5%
all 8 -25.7% -32.8% 25% 25% -30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 25% -30.5%
10% -39.2% 25% -37.1%
15% -45.1% 25% -43.2%
20% -50.5% 25% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$47 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage25d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $26 −$2 -7%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$87 +170%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 23 $92 −$90 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $25 −$25 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $73 +$96 +132%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 23 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 02 $96 −$96 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 41¢ $24 7m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $26 8m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $138 29m
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 26¢ $35 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 27¢ $37 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $25 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 29¢ $19 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $169 3h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 20¢ $34 7h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 20¢ $36 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $73 7h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $96 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records