Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:42:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0ec…7075 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$35 (-25%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$25
politics 43% −$60
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +11.8% +1.2% 67% 67% +40.8%
≤30d 11 -8.5% -17.2% 55% 55% -41.1%
≤90d 11 -8.5% -17.2% 55% 55% -41.1%
all 11 -8.5% -17.2% 55% 55% -41.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 55% -41.1%
10% -25.1% 55% -46.8%
15% -32.3% 45% -51.9%
20% -39.0% 27% -56.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage21d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$8 +52%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +46%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$3 +97%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the second round May 30 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $37 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 37h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $15 40h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 3d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19d
Will Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the second round BUY Yes 2¢ $5 20d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid BUY Yes 79¢ $55 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.28 · official $37.28 (match) · 20 history records