Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:51:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E0 0xe0ed…0cfa other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$730 (+42%) realized +$730 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate20%5W / 20L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$234
sports 37% +$816
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+38.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +53.3% +38.7% 20% 16% +20.9%
≤30d 25 +53.3% +38.7% 20% 16% +20.9%
≤90d 25 +53.3% +38.7% 20% 16% +20.9%
all 25 +53.3% +38.7% 20% 16% +20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +38.7% 16% +20.9%
10% ← realistic here +25.4% 16% +9.3%
15% +13.3% 16% -1.3%
20% +2.2% 16% -10.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +69% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$360 vs −$61 · ×5.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$730
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses5 / 20
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage2d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $67 −$65 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$567 +1104%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $92 −$90 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $92 +$322 +349%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $12 −$3 -30%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $49 −$31 -62%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $133 −$70 -52%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $170 +$6 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $150 −$147 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$309 +601%
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 17 $124 −$121 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $78 −$76 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $67 −$65 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 −$197 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $53 +$597 +1116%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $56 −$55 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 5¢ $57 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $619 6h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 8¢ $51 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 11¢ $92 7h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $320 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 9h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 53¢ $94 10h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $92 10h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 10h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 11h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 4¢ $19 11h
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) SELL Czechia 11¢ $63 11h
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) BUY Czechia 22¢ $133 11h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $49 11h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 11h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 32h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 32h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 32h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 32h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 32h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $32 32h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 32h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $310 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $99 33h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $20 33h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $51 33h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 34h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records