Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:44:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0f0…d4bf sports 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+4%) realized +$44 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%16W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$38
sports 31% +$15
crypto 12% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -1.0% -10.4% 50% 47% -6.7%
≤30d 32 -1.0% -10.4% 50% 47% -6.7%
≤90d 32 -1.0% -10.4% 50% 47% -6.7%
all 32 -1.0% -10.4% 50% 47% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 47% -6.7%
10% -19.0% 38% -15.7%
15% -26.8% 38% -23.8%
20% -34.0% 28% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$44
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)32 / 41
History coverage7d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 43¢ 26¢ $21 $13 −$8 (-39%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 48¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 50¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Under 29¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 38¢ 6¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-84%)
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 +$6 +42%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$2 +216%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 +$11 +36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$6 -12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $6 +$9 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $6 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 26¢ $4 11m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 14m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $18 44m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $4 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $6 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $2 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $15 16h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 58¢ $5 17h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 18h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $5 18h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $2 27h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 27h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $1 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 36h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 36h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 36h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 36h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 37h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $1 37h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $1 37h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 40h
Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots BUY No 1¢ $1 42h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 55¢ $11 42h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 46¢ $15 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.19 · official $50.20 (match) · 94 history records