Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E0 0xe0f1…c4bd world 287 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$61,050 (+31%) realized +$57,193 · open +$3,857
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate69%138W / 62L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$681per market
Trades / day32.1pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$66,794now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 96d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$11,173
finance 13% +$311
other 10% +$1,678
politics 4% +$162
sports 2% +$1,625
crypto 2% +$29
tech 1% +$696
economics 1% +$1,162
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +6.0% -4.1% 63% 42% +9.2%
≤30d 78 +2.3% -7.5% 65% 40% -8.1%
≤90d 200 +17.5% +6.3% 69% 38% +1.2%
all 200 +17.5% +6.3% 69% 38% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.3% 38% +1.2%
10% -3.8% 28% -8.5%
15% ← realistic here -13.1% 16% -17.3%
20% -21.6% 13% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$699) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +41% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$172 vs −$174 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$66,794
Realized+$57,193
Unrealized+$3,857
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses138 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions102
Markets (closed)200 / 287
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$681
Trades / day32.1
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 102 History 200 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 93¢ $5,241 $5,820 +$579 (+11%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $5,349 $5,685 +$335 (+6%)
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? No 86¢ 99¢ $4,529 $5,225 +$696 (+15%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 55¢ $4,302 $3,880 −$423 (-10%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 82¢ 84¢ $3,461 $3,507 +$46 (+1%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 69¢ 71¢ $2,970 $3,049 +$79 (+3%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 66¢ 94¢ $1,898 $2,713 +$815 (+43%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? No 75¢ 94¢ $2,053 $2,580 +$527 (+26%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $2,145 $2,283 +$138 (+6%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $2,174 $2,220 +$46 (+2%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 44¢ 42¢ $2,265 $2,160 −$105 (-5%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 83¢ 98¢ $1,761 $2,086 +$325 (+18%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $1,797 $1,861 +$64 (+4%)
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026? No 87¢ 85¢ $1,476 $1,436 −$41 (-3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 69¢ 99¢ $964 $1,390 +$426 (+44%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $1,174 $1,189 +$15 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 69¢ 99¢ $718 $1,028 +$310 (+43%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $920 $984 +$64 (+7%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 66¢ $970 $924 −$46 (-5%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? No 61¢ 86¢ $626 $887 +$261 (+42%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 78¢ 86¢ $796 $877 +$81 (+10%)
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 71¢ $844 $807 −$37 (-4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 72¢ 61¢ $818 $697 −$121 (-15%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No 66¢ 86¢ $530 $692 +$162 (+31%)
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? No 67¢ 60¢ $725 $656 −$69 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $304 +$96 +32%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $207 +$51 +25%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 17 $5 $0 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $1,727 −$62 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $259 +$61 +24%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $160 −$70 -44%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 15 $292 −$94 -32%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 14 $636 +$158 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $273 −$48 -18%
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? Jun 14 $446 +$565 +127%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? Jun 12 $74 +$4 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $186 +$3 +2%
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 19 million barrels per day in Jun 11 $133 +$15 +11%
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 18 million barrels per day in Jun 11 $216 +$508 +235%
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 20 million barrels per day in Jun 11 $929 +$78 +8%
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 21 million barrels per day in Jun 11 $1,280 +$64 +5%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 11 $183 +$113 +62%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 09 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? Jun 08 $208 +$362 +174%
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? Jun 04 $16 −$5 -34%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2,971 +$29 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 03 $991 +$195 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 02 $892 +$315 +35%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by May 31? Jun 01 $266 +$4 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $0 $0 +8%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31? Jun 01 $166 +$5 +3%
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $190 +$10 +5%
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? Jun 01 $196 +$23 +12%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by May 31? Jun 01 $270 +$12 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $2,711 +$251 +9%
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by May 31? Jun 01 $631 +$18 +3%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? Jun 01 $683 +$119 +17%
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,053 +$41 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $2,086 +$359 +17%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $131 +$69 +53%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $163 +$57 +35%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $3,490 +$107 +3%
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 30 $75 +$25 +33%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? May 26 $56 +$10 +18%
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? May 26 $568 +$175 +31%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 26 $565 +$199 +35%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 26 $535 +$173 +32%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $1,425 −$1,307 -92%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 25 $413 −$413 -100%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30? May 25 $387 −$122 -31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 25 $682 −$682 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? May 25 $910 +$50 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 33m
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $104 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 61¢ $122 1h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL No 85¢ $170 2h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 3h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY No 83¢ $51 3h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY No 83¢ $73 4h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY No 83¢ $42 5h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $4 5h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? BUY No 86¢ $33 6h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 6h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? BUY No 86¢ $70 7h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? BUY No 91¢ $182 7h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? SELL No 93¢ $186 7h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? BUY No 86¢ $69 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 63¢ $126 10h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $78 11h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $2 11h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 13h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 13h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $76 14h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL No 85¢ $170 14h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $6 14h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 15h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 15h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY No 83¢ $42 15h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY No 83¢ $124 15h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 16h
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $526 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66,793.83 · official $66,799.99 (match) · 3500 history records