Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:14:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0f6…a5ee sports 1290 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,363 (-1%) realized −$1,401 · open +$38
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%664W / 620L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Fees−$889est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$460now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$180
7 days+$56
14 days−$145
30 days−$1,685
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,267
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -2.4% -11.7% 43% 41% -7.2%
≤30d 248 +6.5% -3.7% 48% 44% -20.1%
≤90d 932 +3.6% -6.3% 47% 42% -15.2%
all 1284 +2.6% -7.2% 52% 44% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 44% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 35% -20.3%
15% -24.2% 30% -28.0%
20% -31.6% 24% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$46 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$460
Realized−$1,401
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses664 / 620
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$889
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1284 / 1290
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$73
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Boston Red Sox 54¢ 62¢ $214 $245 +$31 (+15%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ 56¢ $93 $106 +$12 (+13%)
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Linda Noskova 64¢ 60¢ $64 $60 −$4 (-7%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Cleveland Guardians 44¢ 44¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-2%)
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Atlanta Braves 47¢ 50¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 43¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 50¢ 34¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream Toronto Tempo 10¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets 40¢ 38¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portland State Vikings vs. Idaho State Bengals (W) Jun 21 $0 +$1 +177%
Air Force Falcons vs. Grand Canyon Antelopes Jun 21 $0 +$1 +245%
UTSA Roadrunners vs. South Florida Bulls Jun 21 $0 −$1 -295%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $3 +$3 +93%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $135 −$135 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $43 −$3 -8%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart Jun 20 $69 −$3 -5%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $69 −$2 -3%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus Jun 20 $72 −$25 -35%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $8 +$6 +79%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $15 +$14 +97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $13 −$1 -4%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $6 +$4 +65%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $2 +$1 +90%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $30 +$22 +72%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito Jun 19 $4 $0 -3%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $6 +$5 +79%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $291 +$318 +109%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 18 $41 +$15 +38%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 18 $21 +$8 +38%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 17 $127 +$307 +243%
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 17 $2 +$3 +129%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Pavel Kotov Jun 17 $175 +$23 +13%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $4 +$2 +34%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $67 −$2 -3%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon Jun 17 $92 +$8 +8%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 17 $58 +$42 +73%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Jun 16 $79 −$79 -100%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $75 +$27 +36%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $322 −$322 -100%
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 15 $133 +$47 +35%
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 15 $48 −$2 -3%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $49 +$51 +105%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $47 +$19 +39%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $51 +$49 +97%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets Jun 13 $65 +$35 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 44¢ $33 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $6 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 64¢ $65 4h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 43¢ $2 6h
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Toronto Tempo 10¢ $1 18h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $217 21h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ $95 21h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 17¢ $135 25h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel BUY Matteo Arnaldi 51¢ $3 27h
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Seattle Storm 30¢ $2 28h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 41¢ $2 32h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray SELL Matteo Arnaldi 66¢ $65 37h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray BUY Matteo Arnaldi 67¢ $69 37h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart SELL Emilio Nava 66¢ $65 38h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart BUY Emilio Nava 67¢ $69 38h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 40¢ $39 38h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 41¢ $43 38h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ $12 43h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 68¢ $13 43h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL New York Mets 38¢ $6 46h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 40¢ $7 46h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito SELL Diane Parry 77¢ $4 47h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito BUY Diane Parry 78¢ $4 47h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus BUY Paula Badosa 76¢ $72 47h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL New York Mets 39¢ $7 2d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 41¢ $8 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 47¢ $291 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 50¢ $1 3d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 51¢ $1 3d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 50¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $459.73 · official $454.17 · 3500 history records